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If the fall in quotations in the US stock market as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is as strong as during the global crisis of 2007-2008, then the value of the currencies of many emerging markets could fall even more, Bloomberg warns.
The agency’s analysts’ calculations show that currencies of countries with current account deficits and relatively illiquid financial markets are in the most vulnerable position. The currencies of these countries have already lost much in value, but there is a threat of continued decline. The exchange rate of the Russian ruble is negatively affected primarily by the drop in world oil prices.
“While there has already been something of a bloodletting in emerging market currencies, there is a possibility that big losses are yet to come,” Bloomberg notes.
The worst prospects, according to analysts, are for the Turkish lira, against which the dollar may rise by 39%. However, Bloomberg notes that the Turkish authorities are restraining the fall of the lira (since January 2020, the dollar rate against it has risen by only 6.7%), and therefore in the future it may be less than the calculated one.
In second place in the list of potentially vulnerable currencies was the Russian ruble, in recent weeks the dollar rate against it has grown by 18%, but it may add another 29.5%. Bloomberg does not indicate the future rate, but if we count from the current one, which is about 75 rubles. per dollar, then it will rise in price to about 97 rubles.
Manturov called the advantages of the weakening of the ruble
Bloomberg also included in the list of currencies against which the dollar may rise by another 10% or more:
Colombian peso – 23.1%;
South African Rand – 22.4%;
Chilean peso – 17.8%;
South Korean won – 17.7%;
Mexican peso – 16.1%;
Brazilian real – 16.1%;
Polish zloty – 11.8%
Since the beginning of January 2020, the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble has grown by about 20% – from 62 rubles. January 3 to 74-75 rubles. During trading on March 16, the value of the dollar on the Moscow Exchange rose to 75.17 rubles, the euro – to 84.38 rubles
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